Climate change articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://197.136.59.112:4000/handle/123456789/138

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Author: search.filters.author.Kilavi, Mary

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    Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context
    (Elsevier, 2022-01-26) Boult, Victoria L.; Black, Emily; Abdillahi, Halima Saado; Bailey, Meghan; Harris, Clare; Kilavi, Mary; Kniveton, Dominic; MacLeod, David; Mwangi, Emmah; Otieno, George; Rees, Elizabeth; Rowhani, Pedram; Taylor, Olivia; Todd, Martin C.
    The lives and livelihoods of people around the world are increasingly threatened by climate related risks as climate change increases the frequency and severity of high-impact weather. In turn, the risk of multiple hazards occurring simultaneously grows and compound impacts become more likely. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed the use of multi-hazard impact-based forecasting (IbF) to better anticipate and reduce the impacts of concurrent hazards, but as yet, there are few operational examples in the humanitarian sector. Drought is particularly susceptible to multi-hazard influences. However, challenges encountered in the development of drought IbF systems – including poor understanding of compound impacts and specific hazard-focused mandates – raise important questions for the feasibility of multi-hazard IbF as envisioned by the WMO. With these challenges in mind, we propose an interim approach in which real-time assessment of dynamic vulnerability provides a context for drought-based IbF. The incorporation of dynamic vulnerability indicators account for the local effects of non-drought hazards, whilst the use of a drought-based system facilitates effective intervention. The proposed approach will improve our understanding of compound events, enhance adoption of IbF in the humanitarian sector, and better mitigate the impacts of concurrent hazards.
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    Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya
    (Taylor & Francis, 2021-11-26) Mwangi, Emma; Taylor, Olivia; Todd, Martin, C.; Visman, Emma; Kniveton, Dom; Kilavi, Mary; Ndegwa, William; Otieno, George; Waruru, Shamton; Mwangi, John; Ambani, Maurine; Abdillahi, Halima; MacLeod, David; Rowhani, Pedram; Graham, Richard; Coleman, Richard
    Drought and food security crises heighten risks to lives and livelihoods in East Africa. In recent years, a shift towards acting in advance of such events has gained momentum, notably among the humanitarian and development community. This shift is premised on tools that link climate forecasts with pre-agreed actions and funding, known as Forecast-based Action (FbA), or anticipatory action more widely. While FbA approaches have been developed by a number of humanitarian agencies, the key to scaling-up is mainstreaming these approaches into national risk management systems. This paper addresses this gap in the context of drought risk management in Kenya. We analyse Kenya’s current drought management system to assess the potential usability of climate forecast information within the existing system, and outline steps towards improved usability of climate information. Further, we note the critical importance of enabling institutions and reliable financing to ensure that information can be consistently used to trigger early action. We discuss the implications of this for scaling-up FbA into national risk management systems.
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    Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya
    (Wiley, 2022-01-27) Kiptum, Augustine; Mwangi, Emma; Otieno, George; Njogu, Andrew; Kilavi, Mary; Mwai, Zacharia; MacLeod, Dave; Neal, Jeff; Hawker, Laurence; O'shea, Tom; Saado, Halima; Visman, Emma; Majani, Bernard; Todd, Martin, C.
    Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rain- fall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub- seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances.