Climate change articles
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Item FLOOD IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING FOR EARLY WARNING AND EARLY ACTION IN TANA RIVER BASIN, KENYA(Researchgate, 2019-09-03) Otieno, O.M.; Abdillahi, H. S.; Wambui, E. M.; Kiprono, K. S.Kenya is mostly affected by floods during the March-April-May (MAM) and October November-December (OND) rainfall. This often occurs along river basins such as the Tana river basin, leading to disruption of people’s livelihoods, loss of lives, infrastructure destruction and interruption of economic activities. This study used openly available data on flood exposure, vulnerability, lack of coping capacity, flood impacts and observed satellite rainfall to analyse and predict forecast-based impacts in Tana river. Earth observation satellites including LANDSAT, sentinel 1 and 2 were acquired based on credible flood event dates to validate flood exposure and flood events. The community risk assessment (CRA) approach was used to delineate communities at high risk of floods using combination of data on vulnerability, flood exposure and lack of coping capacity. Using an ordinary least squares (OLS) predictive model, observed satellite rainfall was used as a covariate in order to predict flood impacts on communities with high flood risk scores in Tana river. Weighted scores from the CRA dimensions were summed up with forecasted hazards from the OLS model in order to derive a flood impact-based forecast. The flood impact information is to be used in forecast-based action through early warning, early action protocols thereby reducing impacts of potential floods in communities living in high flood risk areas based on the flood risk map.Item Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya(Wiley, 2022-01-27) Kiptum, Augustine; Mwangi, Emma; Otieno, George; Njogu, Andrew; Kilavi, Mary; Mwai, Zacharia; MacLeod, Dave; Neal, Jeff; Hawker, Laurence; O'shea, Tom; Saado, Halima; Visman, Emma; Majani, Bernard; Todd, Martin, C.Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rain- fall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub- seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances.