Climate change articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://197.136.59.112:4000/handle/123456789/138

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Start date: 2020End date: 2022

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    Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context
    (Elsevier, 2022-01-26) Boult, Victoria L.; Black, Emily; Abdillahi, Halima Saado; Bailey, Meghan; Harris, Clare; Kilavi, Mary; Kniveton, Dominic; MacLeod, David; Mwangi, Emmah; Otieno, George; Rees, Elizabeth; Rowhani, Pedram; Taylor, Olivia; Todd, Martin C.
    The lives and livelihoods of people around the world are increasingly threatened by climate related risks as climate change increases the frequency and severity of high-impact weather. In turn, the risk of multiple hazards occurring simultaneously grows and compound impacts become more likely. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed the use of multi-hazard impact-based forecasting (IbF) to better anticipate and reduce the impacts of concurrent hazards, but as yet, there are few operational examples in the humanitarian sector. Drought is particularly susceptible to multi-hazard influences. However, challenges encountered in the development of drought IbF systems – including poor understanding of compound impacts and specific hazard-focused mandates – raise important questions for the feasibility of multi-hazard IbF as envisioned by the WMO. With these challenges in mind, we propose an interim approach in which real-time assessment of dynamic vulnerability provides a context for drought-based IbF. The incorporation of dynamic vulnerability indicators account for the local effects of non-drought hazards, whilst the use of a drought-based system facilitates effective intervention. The proposed approach will improve our understanding of compound events, enhance adoption of IbF in the humanitarian sector, and better mitigate the impacts of concurrent hazards.
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    Determinants of Household Willingness to Pay for Improved Water Supply: A Case Study of Baringo and Samburu Counties, Kenya
    (Researchgate, 2020-09) Kingori, Sarah; Abdillahi, Halima Saado
    Background: In Sub-Saharan Africa, the supply of affordable, accessible and safe drinking water particularly in rural areas lags behind global progress. Achieving the universal and equitable access objectives warrants an understanding of household behavior in relation to water services. Purpose of the study: The aim of the study was to investigate the factors that influence willingness to pay for improved water service provision in a rural context in Kenya. Methods: A total of 601 households in Baringo and Samburu Counties were randomly selected using probability proportional to size technique. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and logit regression. Results: The empirical result shows that demographic characteristics of household, water source, quality and quantity, children responsible for fetching water, water access challenges and frequency of diarrhea are significant variables that explain willingness to pay. Conclusion: The findings conclude with important policy recommendations; (i) demand-driven approaches in the design of water supply projects, (ii) enhanced water quality management, and (iii) awareness creation to achieve social and health benefits which can facilitate long-term access and sustainability.
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    Use of earth observation products to enhance humanitarian disaster response: A Case Study of KRCS Response to West Pokot Mudslides in 2019
    (Researchgate, 2020-12-01) Osunga, Michael; Makena, Betty; Abdillahi, Halima Saado
    Kenya is mostly affected by mudslides and floods during two rainfall seasons, namely March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND). These landslides, floods and mudslides more often than not lead to loss of human lives, destruction of houses, displacement of people, livestock deaths, loss livelihoods among other impacts. This paper highlights the use of earth observation satellite imageries from the Airbus foundation for-disaster impact assessment during the 2019 OND rainfall season to support effective response. On the 23rd of November 2019 during the OND rainfall season, mudslides and floods occurred in West Pokot resulting in disruption of road accessibility, loss of human lives, loss of livelihoods, houses destruction and displacement of people. Due to continuation of rainfall, roads were cut-off and hence it was difficult to access the area to determine the damage and the number of households affected. Through the partnership with Airbus foundation, International Center for Humanitarian Affairs (ICHA) at Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) tasked the Pleiades satellite to acquire imageries of the affected areas five days after the mudslide event. A spot 6 imagery archive captured on the 15th of May 2019 (months before the mudslide event) was downloaded from the Airbus foundation archives. A comparison of these two imageries through change detection was done in order to extract mudslide and flooding hazard extents. A hazard exposure analysis was done in order to determine houses and roads affected by the mudslide and flood hazard. Results from exposure analysis revealed over 145 houses as being destroyed and over 2.1 kilometers of roads being cut-off. Further analysis was done to determine partially and completely destroyed houses. KRCS was able to use this information for post-disaster recovery interventions such as search and rescue as well as shelter initiation of re-construction houses that were completely damaged by floods and mudslides. This study has demonstrated the valuable use of satellite imageries from the Airbus Foundation to KRCS through provision of timely and accurate information on impacts of mudslides and floods in remote and inaccessible areas in a cost-effective manner and further support effective and efficient response and recovery. It is highly recommended for KRCS and other Red Cross and Red Crescent National Societies to use earth observation satellites for post-disaster assessment especially in remote areas that are inaccessible. This by far would improve their humanitarian capacity in conducting post-disaster assessments in a cost-effective and timely manner.
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    Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya
    (Taylor & Francis, 2021-11-26) Mwangi, Emma; Taylor, Olivia; Todd, Martin, C.; Visman, Emma; Kniveton, Dom; Kilavi, Mary; Ndegwa, William; Otieno, George; Waruru, Shamton; Mwangi, John; Ambani, Maurine; Abdillahi, Halima; MacLeod, David; Rowhani, Pedram; Graham, Richard; Coleman, Richard
    Drought and food security crises heighten risks to lives and livelihoods in East Africa. In recent years, a shift towards acting in advance of such events has gained momentum, notably among the humanitarian and development community. This shift is premised on tools that link climate forecasts with pre-agreed actions and funding, known as Forecast-based Action (FbA), or anticipatory action more widely. While FbA approaches have been developed by a number of humanitarian agencies, the key to scaling-up is mainstreaming these approaches into national risk management systems. This paper addresses this gap in the context of drought risk management in Kenya. We analyse Kenya’s current drought management system to assess the potential usability of climate forecast information within the existing system, and outline steps towards improved usability of climate information. Further, we note the critical importance of enabling institutions and reliable financing to ensure that information can be consistently used to trigger early action. We discuss the implications of this for scaling-up FbA into national risk management systems.
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    Advancing operational flood forecasting, early warning and risk management with new emerging science: Gaps, opportunities and barriers in Kenya
    (Wiley, 2022-01-27) Kiptum, Augustine; Mwangi, Emma; Otieno, George; Njogu, Andrew; Kilavi, Mary; Mwai, Zacharia; MacLeod, Dave; Neal, Jeff; Hawker, Laurence; O'shea, Tom; Saado, Halima; Visman, Emma; Majani, Bernard; Todd, Martin, C.
    Kenya and the wider East African region suffer from significant flood risk, as illustrated by major losses of lives, livelihoods and assets in the most recent years. This is likely to increase in future as exposure rises and rain- fall intensifies under climate change. Accordingly, flood risk management is a priority action area in Kenya's national climate change adaptation planning. Here, we outline the opportunities and challenges to improve end-to-end flood early warning systems, considering the scientific, technical and institutional/governance dimensions. We demonstrate improvements in rainfall forecasts, river flow, inundation and baseline flood risk information. Notably, East Africa is a ‘sweetspot’ for rainfall predictability at sub- seasonal to seasonal timescales for extending forecast lead times beyond a few days and for ensemble flood forecasting. Further, we demonstrate coupled ensemble flow forecasting, new flood inundation simulation, vulnerability and exposure data to support Impact based Forecasting (IbF). We illustrate these advances in the case of fluvial and urban flooding and reflect on the potential for improved flood preparedness action. However, we note that, unlike for drought, there remains no national flood risk management framework in Kenya and there is need to enhance institutional capacities and arrangements to take full advantage of these scientific advances.